Assigned reading is denoted by bold text.
The exact dates of the lectures may change and will be discussed on the first day of class.
Lecture 1 (Aug. 26): IPCC 5th Assessment Report [Libby]
presentation (.pdf)- AR5 Technical Summary: Sections Box TS.1, 5.5.1-5.5.4
- AR5 Chapter 11, Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, Sections 11.3.1, 11.3.2.4
- AR5 Chapter 12, Long-term Climate Change: Projections Commitments and Irreversibility, Sections 12.4.3.1-3, 12.4.4, 12.4.5.1-2
Lecture 2 (Aug. 28): Internal atmospheric variability [Erin & Samantha]
presentation (.pdf)- Deser, Knutti et al., 2012: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, NATCC.
- Hawkins & Sutton, 2009: The Potential to Narrow Uncertainties in Regional Climate Predictions, BAMS.
- Deser, Phillips, et al., 2014: Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability, JCLI.
- Kay, Deser et al., 2014: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability, submitted to BAMS.
- Deser, Phillips et al. 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, CDYN.
- Hawkins & Sutton, 2011: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, CDYN.
Lecture 3 (Sept. 2): Modes of variability [Eric & Greg]
presentation (.pdf)- AR5 Chapter 14, Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change, Sections 14.1, 14.3.1-2, 14.4, 14.5, 14.6
- Stevenson, 2012: Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5, GRL.
- Kim & Yu, 2012: The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models, GRL.
- Cai, Borlace et al., 2014: Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming, NATCC.
- Barnes & Polvani, 2013: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, JCLI.
Lecture 4 (Sept. 4): Storm tracks and jet-streams, Part I [Marie & Andy]
presentation (.pdf)- Harvey, Shaffrey et al., 2013: Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models, CDYN.
- Butler, Thompson et al., 2010: The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change-like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model, JCLI.
- Chang, Guo et al., 2012: CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming, JGR.
- Barnes & Polvani, 2013: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models, JCLI.
- Bracegirdle, Shuckburgh et al., 2013: Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence, JGR.
- Simpson, Shaw et al., 2014: A Diagnosis of the Seasonally and Longitudinally Varying Midlatitude Circulation Response to Global Warming, JAS.
- Wilcox, Charlton-Perez et al., 2012: Trends in Austral jet position in ensembles of high- and low-top CMIP5 models, JGR.
- Chen & Held, 2007: Phase speed spectra and the recent poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies, GRL.
Lecture 5 (Sept. 9): Storm tracks and jet-streams, Part II [Nick & Caitlin]
presentation (.pdf)- Woollings, Gregory et al., 2012: Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling, NATGEO.
- Drijfhout, van Oldenborgh et al., 2012: Is a Decline of AMOC Causing the Warming Hole above the North Atlantic in Observed and Modeled Warming Patterns?, JCLI.
- AR5 Chapter 12, Long-term Climate Change: Projections Commitments and Irreversibility, Sections 12.4.7.1-2
- see Part I above for additional references
Lecture 6 (Sept. 11): Stratospheric ozone recovery v.s. climate change [Bryan & Brian]
presentation (.pdf)- Son, Polvani et al., 2008: The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet, SCI.
- Polvani, Previdi et al., 2011: Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends, GRL.
- Smith, Polvani et al., 2012: Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery, GRL.
- Barnes, Barnes et al., 2014: Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models, JCLI.
- Previdi & Polvani, 2014: Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery, QJRMS.
- Polvani, Waugh et al., 2011: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere, JCLI.
- Thompson, Solomon, et al., 2011: Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change, NATGEO.
- Wang, Cai et al., 2014: Trends in Southern Hemisphere wind-driven circulation in CMIP5 models over the 21st century: Ozone recovery versus greenhouse forcing, JGR.
Lecture 7 (Nov. 18): Stratospheric circulation [Ali & James]
presentation (.pdf)- Hardiman, Butchart et al., 2014: The morphology of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and its response to climate change in CMIP5 simulations, QJRMS.
- Lin & Fu, 2013: Changes in various branches of the Brewer-Dobson circulation from an ensemble of chemistry climate models, JGR.
- Palmeiro, Calvo, et al., 2014: Future Changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation under Different Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in WACCM4, JAS.
- Shepherd & McLandress, 2011: A Robust Mechanism for Strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation in Response to Climate Change: Critical-Layer Control of Subtropical Wave Breaking, JAS.
- Butchart, Scaife et al., 2006: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, CDYN.
- Calvo & Garcia, 2009: Wave Forcing of the Tropical Upwelling in the Lower Stratosphere under Increasing Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases, JAS.
- Garcia & Randel, 2008: Acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation due to Increases in Greenhouse Gases, JAS.
Lecture 8 (Nov. 20): Hadley circulation and precipitation [Brandon & Alex]
presentation (.pdf)- Lu, Vecchi et al., 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming, GRL.
- Scheff & Frierson, 2012: Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones, GRL.
- Scheff & Frierson, 2012: Twenty-First-Century Multimodel Subtropical Precipitation Declines Are Mostly Midlatitude Shifts, JCLI.
- Held, 2000: The General Circulation of the Atmosphere, Woods Hole Notes.
- Held & Soden, 2006: Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming, JCLI.
- Frierson, Lu et al., 2007: Width of the Hadley cell in simple and comprehensive general circulation models, GRL.
- Kang & Lu, 2012: Expansion of the Hadley Cell under Global Warming: Winter versus Summer, JCLI.
- Ceppi & Hartmann, 2013: On the Speed of the Eddy-Driven Jet and the Width of the Hadley Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, JCLI.
Lecture 9 (Dec. 2): Model circulation biases with ties to dynamics [Todd]
presentation (.pdf)- Kidston & Gerber, 2010: Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology, GRL.
- Grise & Polvani, 2014: Southern Hemisphere Cloud-Dynamics Biases in CMIP5 Models and Their Implications for Climate Projections, JCLI.
- Chang, Guo et al., 2012: CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming, JGR.
- Ceppi, Hwang et al., 2012: Southern Hemisphere jet latitude biases in CMIP5 models linked to shortwave cloud forcing, GRL.
- Barnes & Hartmann, 2010: Testing a theory for the effect of latitude on the persistence of eddy-driven jets using CMIP3 simulations, GRL.
- Bracegirdle, Shuckburgh et al., 2013: Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence, JGR.
Lecture 10 (Dec. 4): Arctic amplification [Chengji & Parker]
presentation (.pdf)- Pithan & Mauritsen, 2013: Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models, NATGEO.
- Cattiaux & Cassou, 2013: Opposite CMIP3/CMIP5 trends in the wintertime Northern Annular Mode explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences, GRL.
- Screen, 2014: Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes, NATCC.
- Serreze & Barry, 2011: Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis, GPC.
- Deser, Tomas et al., 2010: The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century, JCLI.
- Holland & Bitz, 2003: Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models, CDYN.
- Manabe & Stouffer, 1980: Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, JGR.
- Stroeve, Kattsov et al., 2012: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations, GRL.
- Kay, Holland et al., 2012: The Influence of Local Feedbacks and Northward Heat Transport on the Equilibrium Arctic Climate Response to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing, JCLI.